Our team recently held some of our year-end client engagements around the country. These always tend to stir up some interesting conversations. What was notable to me, was the positivity expressed towards our country, which has not always been the case around the table – a welcoming sentiment.
If we look back over the last year, since the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU) in 2024, South Africa has experienced a positive shift in economic sentiment, capital market stability and investor confidence. The effect has been visible not only on the economic dashboard but also culturally, with national confidence buoyed by global recognition at the G20 Summit and the Springboks’ continued dominance. This reminds investors that South Africa still knows how to win on and off the field!
Technically, the GNU period has delivered lower perceived risk incentive, stabilisation in fiscal guidance and encouraging signs of inflation moderation. This has allowed the equity market to rerate. The FTSE/JSE All Share Index (ALSI) has posted strong gains over the past year, supported by a combination of higher commodity prices, improved earnings guidance and foreign inflows reallocating to undervalued South African assets. This has resulted in many active managers having an overweight view to South African equities. These market gains stretch further than this, with the ALSI (in USD) recording an impressive 110% over the last 5 years, beating the MSCI World Index (USD) which recorded 86% over the same period – a whopping 24% difference.
Equity-centric investors, particularly those overweight South African cyclicals, were rewarded handsomely. Resource counters such as Anglo American and Glencore extended their recovery, with several names delivering year-to-date gains of 15-25%, driven by firmer commodity prices and improved Chinese demand signals. Globally exposed tech proxies on the JSE, notably Naspers and Prosus, added further lift, with both counters rebounding 10-18%, as global AI-linked earnings velocity filtered through. Domestic financials, particularly the Big Five Banks, continued their rerating trend and the sector delivered high-single to low double-digit performance with compelling dividend yields, supported by tighter credit-loss ratios and a stabilising macro backdrop.
For multi-asset mandates, which would typically include an allocation to bonds, the bylines were equally compelling. The South African 10-year bond yield, which had spiked above 12% in late 2023, eased by more than 80-100 basis points, strengthening total return potential meaningfully.
Whether a conservative, moderate or aggressive investor, this environment has unlocked greater portfolio optionality. For a boutique manager, like ourselves, volatility creates an opportunity to rotate into favourable sectors and shares, translating into higher upside potential, and both our SA Equity and Multi-Asset portfolio have delivered just that.
In 2025 the rand (ZAR) strengthened meaningfully against the US dollar (USD), moving from its highest point of 19.74 in April, to the low 17’s. Over 2025, the rand has appreciated 8-10%, its best showing in years. This is reflective of a few elements discussed in this article – a weaker dollar globally, improved commodity prices and renewed investor interest in emerging markets (despite certain domestic headwinds).
From an economic perspective, reforms around procurement, SOE governance and infrastructure investment continue to anchor expectations for medium to long term growth. The country’s strong presence at the recent G20 Summit added to this momentum, as policymakers positioned South Africa as a credible Emerging Market Hub for energy transition, financial sector resilience and continent-wide trade integration.
An article which discusses South African positivity would not be complete without reference to our green and gold – the Springboks! The Bokke scored 81 tries in 14 Tests in 2025, equalling the record of the 2007 edition, who scored 81 tries in 17 Tests. In 2025, the Boks averaged 5.8 tries per match. Their global dominance has provided a welcome psychological lift. While not a financial indicator, sentiment matters! Confidence boosts consumer behaviour, risk appetite and even expenditure patterns. If the JSE needed a mascot for resilience, the Bokke have offered exactly that.